On February 27, the Information Office of Guangzhou municipal government held a special press conference on epidemic prevention and control at Guangzhou Medical University. Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the national health and Health Commission and academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, answered some of the main issues of concern to the masses. Zhong Nanshan said the outbreak first appeared in China, but not necessarily originated in China. And expressed confidence that the epidemic will be basically controlled by the end of April.


Zhong Nanshan: to predict the epidemic situation, we first consider China, not foreign countries. Now there are some situations in foreign countries. The epidemic first appeared in China, not necessarily originated in China.


"Guangzhou Medical University has played a certain role in the strategic level of national strategic deployment. First of all, there are several strategies to be noted. The first is to put forward a clear" human to human "and the fact that medical staff are infected on January 20, which plays an important role in the national consideration of disease prevention and control. According to our study and judgment, in China, there is only a large-scale outbreak in Wuhan, but not in Guangdong and other cities. "


China has predicted that the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China should be around 160 thousand in February 4th, and our forecast is 7-8 000, he said.




"Based on our team's traditional model and influencing factors, after the national strong intervention and the elimination of the return peak after the Spring Festival, it is predicted that the peak should be close to the end of February in mid February. On February 15, the figures came down. We are closer to the predictions of foreign authorities. We are confident that we will basically control by the end of April. "


Zhong Nanshan: forecast peak has not yet appeared


"Now return to work peak, before our prediction model is another peak after return, now it's 27th, our prediction peak has not yet appeared." "Because we have to check whether we get on or off the train, the natural spread of the virus has been interrupted, so we need to go back to work, but under strict handling arrangements," said Zhong. "




For example, Foxconn has tens of thousands of people returning to work in 3000 square meters. "The way we adopted at that time was that workers should have double tests, one is nucleic acid test, and the other is IgM test. In addition, all factory faucets and sewers should be very smooth. Now there is no evidence that the virus spreads through the digestive tract, so we should do a good job in respiratory protection. "


Low infection rate after rehabilitation




In view of the problem that some patients are positive for nucleic acid after recovery and discharge, Zhong Nanshan said that there are multiple factors for the recovery of nucleic acid after discharge, and we can't make an absolute definition. Now I don't know how its development process is. We should look at it as we develop. The law of virus infection is the same. The chance of reinfection of a convalescent patient is very small, because the body has produced antibodies. As for the residual virus in the intestinal feces, the nucleic acid fragment discharged has its own rule. The intestinal tract is relatively long, which may be that the residual is not discharged. I suggest isolation at home, and recheck 24 hours after finding out if it turns negative.


15 minute rapid kit has been put into use


Zhong Nanshan said: in terms of prevention, a number of treatment schemes have been organized. The time of virus transfer in some important treatment schemes is 5-7, 8 days, no more than 10 days.




"On the day of the great enemy, it is absolutely right to use the existing safe medicine, and the blank control cannot be said in medical ethics. The therapeutic effect of chloroquine phosphate is better, but it remains to be observed. Then we will have a serious control experiment. "


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