终南山表示疫情不一定源自中国,有信心4月底基本控制疫情-看世界

终南山表示疫情不一定源自中国,有信心4月底基本控制疫情

2月27日,广州市政府新闻办在广州医科大学举办疫情防控专场新闻通气会,国家卫健委高级别专家组组长、中国工程院院士钟南山对群众关切的一些主要问题进行了解答。钟南山表示,疫情首先出现在中国,但不一定发源在中国。并表示有信心4月底基本控制疫情。

On February 27, the Information Office of Guangzhou municipal government held a special press conference on epidemic prevention and control at Guangzhou Medical University. Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the national health and Health Commission and academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, answered some of the main issues of concern to the masses. Zhong Nanshan said the outbreak first appeared in China, but not necessarily originated in China. And expressed confidence that the epidemic will be basically controlled by the end of April.

钟南山:对疫情的预测,我们首先考虑中国,没考虑国外。现在国外出现一些情况,疫情首先出现在中国,不一定是发源在中国。

Zhong Nanshan: to predict the epidemic situation, we first consider China, not foreign countries. Now there are some situations in foreign countries. The epidemic first appeared in China, not necessarily originated in China.

“广州医科大学在国家战略部署的战略层面上起到了一定的作用,首先是有几个战略要注意,第一个是1月20日提出明确的‘人传人’和医护人员被感染的事实,这对国家考虑病情防控起到了重要作用。根据我们的研判,在中国,只有在武汉出现了大规模爆发,在广东等其他城市并不是大规模爆发。”

"Guangzhou Medical University has played a certain role in the strategic level of national strategic deployment. First of all, there are several strategies to be noted. The first is to put forward a clear" human to human "and the fact that medical staff are infected on January 20, which plays an important role in the national consideration of disease prevention and control. According to our study and judgment, in China, there is only a large-scale outbreak in Wuhan, but not in Guangdong and other cities. "

钟南山指出,有外国专家预测,估计2月4日中国“新冠肺炎”病人应该到16万左右,我们的预测值是7-8万。

China has predicted that the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China should be around 160 thousand in February 4th, and our forecast is 7-8 000, he said.

 

 

“根据我们团队在传统模型基础上加上影响因素,国家强力干预和春节后的回程高峰消除后,预测高峰应该在2月中接近2月底。到了2月15日,数字果然下来了。我们更接近国外权威的预测值。我们有信心,四月底基本控制。”

"Based on our team's traditional model and influencing factors, after the national strong intervention and the elimination of the return peak after the Spring Festival, it is predicted that the peak should be close to the end of February in mid February. On February 15, the figures came down. We are closer to the predictions of foreign authorities. We are confident that we will basically control by the end of April. "

钟南山:预测高峰还没有出现

Zhong Nanshan: forecast peak has not yet appeared

“现在复工回流高峰,之前我们的预测模型是回流之后又出现一个高峰,现在是是27号,我们预测高峰还没有出现。”钟南山表示,“因为上下火车都要检查,病毒自然传播规律被打断了,所以我们复工是要复工,但要在严格的处理安排下。“

"Now return to work peak, before our prediction model is another peak after return, now it's 27th, our prediction peak has not yet appeared." "Because we have to check whether we get on or off the train, the natural spread of the virus has been interrupted, so we need to go back to work, but under strict handling arrangements," said Zhong. "

 

 

比如说,富士康几万人在三千平方米的地方复工,“我们当时采取的做法是工人要双检测,一个是核酸检测,另外也做IgM检测。另外,所有的工厂水龙头、下水道都要非常通畅,现在没有任何证据证明病毒经消化道传播,所以还是要做好呼吸道的防护。”

For example, Foxconn has tens of thousands of people returning to work in 3000 square meters. "The way we adopted at that time was that workers should have double tests, one is nucleic acid test, and the other is IgM test. In addition, all factory faucets and sewers should be very smooth. Now there is no evidence that the virus spreads through the digestive tract, so we should do a good job in respiratory protection. "

康复后感染率低

Low infection rate after rehabilitation

 

 

针对有些病人康复出院后再次检测出核酸阳性的问题,钟南山表示,出院后核酸检测复阳有多重因素,我们不能下绝对的定义。现在还不知道它的发展过程怎么样,要一边发展一边看。病毒感染的规律都是一样的,一个康复病人再感染的几率很小,因为体内已经产生了抗体。至于肠道粪便里头有残余病毒,排出来的核酸片段,它有自己的规律,肠道比较长,可能是残余没排出。我建议要在家里隔离,在查到有阳性之后24小时再复查一下有没有转成阴性。

In view of the problem that some patients are positive for nucleic acid after recovery and discharge, Zhong Nanshan said that there are multiple factors for the recovery of nucleic acid after discharge, and we can't make an absolute definition. Now I don't know how its development process is. We should look at it as we develop. The law of virus infection is the same. The chance of reinfection of a convalescent patient is very small, because the body has produced antibodies. As for the residual virus in the intestinal feces, the nucleic acid fragment discharged has its own rule. The intestinal tract is relatively long, which may be that the residual is not discharged. I suggest isolation at home, and recheck 24 hours after finding out if it turns negative.

15分钟快速试剂盒已投入应用

15 minute rapid kit has been put into use

钟南山表示:在预防方面,目前也组织了多组治疗方案。一些重要的治疗方案病毒转移的时间都是在5-7、8天,不会超过10天。

Zhong Nanshan said: in terms of prevention, a number of treatment schemes have been organized. The time of virus transfer in some important treatment schemes is 5-7, 8 days, no more than 10 days.

 

 

“大敌当天,用现有的安全的药是完全对的,空白对照在医学伦理上也说不过去。这些药物方案,我们初步观察磷酸氯喹的治疗效果好一些,但是还有待观察。接下来会进行认真的对照实验。”

"On the day of the great enemy, it is absolutely right to use the existing safe medicine, and the blank control cannot be said in medical ethics. The therapeutic effect of chloroquine phosphate is better, but it remains to be observed. Then we will have a serious control experiment. "

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